U.S. Stocks Will Decline till Late October, Following the 1938 Cycle Pattern

September 2, 2009 – U.S. stock prices fell again today, failing to recoup the 2 percent drops in major U.S. indexes yesterday. Declines in those indexes are part of a slide that should continue until late October, said Allen Reminick, president of Blue Apple Trends. The pattern in the 1938 stock market is repeating itself now, he said.

In addition to identifying a similarity to the 1938 pattern, other Blue Apple Trends’ proprietary time cycle programs have been predicting since July a three-month drop, said Reminick.

“The loss by the end of October will be as much as 15 percent, from the highs on August 25,” said Reminick. “After the low in October, the market should rise into February 2010, with an 11,200 price target on the Dow,” he said.

The tools of Blue Apple Trends have predicted the major trends in the S&P 500 successfully for the last 44 years, said Reminick. His market research expands the traditional approach to cycle analysis by incorporating non-sinusoidal waves, he said. This is instead of relying on the sine-wave or Fourier decomposition approach, he said.

Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 slipped about a third of a percentage point in trading today.

-- Laure Edwards